EcoMakala Virunga Reforestation project by CO2logic

Enhanced Credit Analysis Report
GS ID: GS5618 7 Vintages Analyzed

Executive Summary

530,858
Total Verified Credits (tCO2e)
7
Vintage Years
81.4%
Avg Performance Ratio

Comprehensive Analysis

The EcoMakala Virunga Reforestation project, validated under the Gold Standard, demonstrates robust overall performance, having issued a total of 530,858 tCO2e across seven vintages, slightly exceeding the total planned issuance of 516,908 tCO2e outlined in the Project Design Document (PDD). However, the average performance ratio of 81.4% suggests variability in the achievement of projected emissions reductions across the project's lifetime. A closer examination of vintage-specific data reveals a pattern of higher initial credit issuance followed by a period of stabilization. The 2016 vintage significantly outperformed all others with 179,414 tCO2e verified, representing a substantial portion of the total verified credits. Subsequent vintages from 2019 to 2021 demonstrate remarkable consistency, each verifying approximately 64,211 tCO2e. This suggests a period of reliable carbon sequestration after the initial establishment phase. A notable decline is observed in the 2022 vintage, with only 40,805 tCO2e verified. This could be attributed to several factors, including changing environmental conditions, project management adjustments, or delayed verification processes, warranting further investigation. While the initial years show high performance, the stable trend in middle vintages and the decline in the most recent vintage results in an average performance of 81.4%. In conclusion, the EcoMakala Virunga Reforestation project presents a mixed profile. While exceeding overall expected credits and exhibiting a period of stable performance, the decline in the most recent vintage raises questions about long-term project reliability. The project demonstrates a high initial impact but shows potential risks to sustained carbon sequestration. Further analysis of the 2022 vintage is crucial to assess the long-term viability and robustness of this carbon offsetting initiative.

Project Timeline

2019.08
GS5618 - EcoMakala Virunga Reforestation project
2020.11
크레딧 발행 (빈티지 2015)
2020.11
크레딧 발행 (빈티지 2016)
2020.11
크레딧 발행 (빈티지 2014)
2020.11
크레딧 발행 (빈티지 2013)
2020.11
크레딧 발행 (빈티지 2012)
2020.11
크레딧 발행 (빈티지 2011)
2024.07
크레딧 발행 (빈티지 2017)

Vintage Year Analysis

Vintage Year 2016

Monitoring Period
Vintage Year: 2016
Start Date: 2009-02-16
End Date: 2016-12-31
Verification Results
Verified Credits: 179,414 tCO2e
Performance Ratio: 85.0%

PDD Expected vs Actual Verification

Factor PDD Expected Actual Verified Variance
Projected Reductions 211,205 tCO2e 211,205 tCO2e → 0.0%
Buffer/Uncertainty Deduction 42,241 tCO2e 31,791 tCO2e ↓ -24.7%
Total Expected Credits 168,964 tCO2e 179,414 tCO2e ↑ +6.2%

Credit Flow Diagram

Vintage Analysis

Projected reductions: 211,205 tCO2e is the estimated annual reduction for vintage 2016. This report uses projected reductions as the starting point for credit calculation: projected reductions minus deductions equals verified credits.

Buffer/uncertainty alignment: The verification report applies a combined buffer/uncertainty deduction of 31,791 tCO2e (15.1%), which is -10,450 tCO2e relative to the PDD expectation of 42,241 tCO2e (20.0%). Leakage deductions are 0 tCO2e, and the resulting verified credits are 179,414 tCO2e.

Vintage Year 2017

Monitoring Period
Vintage Year: 2017
Start Date: 2017-03-21
End Date: 2022-04-29
Verification Results
Verified Credits: 55,119 tCO2e
SOC Credit: 606 tCO2e
Performance Ratio: 80.9%

PDD Expected vs Actual Verification

Factor PDD Expected Actual Verified Variance
Projected Reductions 68,142 tCO2e 68,142 tCO2e → 0.0%
Buffer/Uncertainty Deduction 13,628 tCO2e 13,628 tCO2e → 0.0%
SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon) N/A 606 tCO2e → 0.0%
Total Expected Credits 54,514 tCO2e 55,119 tCO2e ↑ +1.1%

Credit Flow Diagram

Vintage Analysis

Projected reductions: 68,142 tCO2e is the estimated annual reduction for vintage 2017. This report uses projected reductions as the starting point for credit calculation: projected reductions minus deductions equals verified credits.

Buffer/uncertainty alignment: The verification report applies a combined buffer/uncertainty deduction of 13,628 tCO2e (20.0%), which is +0 tCO2e relative to the PDD expectation of 13,628 tCO2e (20.0%). Leakage deductions are 0 tCO2e, and the resulting verified credits are 55,119 tCO2e.

SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon): An additional 606 tCO2e from Soil Organic Carbon contributes to the verified total. Tree biomass net reductions (projected − leakage − buffer/uncertainty) account for 54,514 tCO2e, with the remaining 606 tCO2e attributed to SOC.

Vintage Year 2018

Monitoring Period
Vintage Year: 2018
Start Date: 2017-03-21
End Date: 2022-04-29
Verification Results
Verified Credits: 62,886 tCO2e
SOC Credit: 627 tCO2e
Performance Ratio: 80.8%

PDD Expected vs Actual Verification

Factor PDD Expected Actual Verified Variance
Projected Reductions 77,823 tCO2e 77,823 tCO2e → 0.0%
Buffer/Uncertainty Deduction 15,565 tCO2e 15,565 tCO2e ↓ -0.0%
SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon) N/A 627 tCO2e → 0.0%
Total Expected Credits 62,259 tCO2e 62,886 tCO2e ↑ +1.0%

Credit Flow Diagram

Vintage Analysis

Projected reductions: 77,823 tCO2e is the estimated annual reduction for vintage 2018. This report uses projected reductions as the starting point for credit calculation: projected reductions minus deductions equals verified credits.

Buffer/uncertainty alignment: The verification report applies a combined buffer/uncertainty deduction of 15,565 tCO2e (20.0%), which is -0 tCO2e relative to the PDD expectation of 15,565 tCO2e (20.0%). Leakage deductions are 0 tCO2e, and the resulting verified credits are 62,886 tCO2e.

SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon): An additional 627 tCO2e from Soil Organic Carbon contributes to the verified total. Tree biomass net reductions (projected − leakage − buffer/uncertainty) account for 62,259 tCO2e, with the remaining 627 tCO2e attributed to SOC.

Vintage Year 2019

Monitoring Period
Vintage Year: 2019
Start Date: 2017-03-21
End Date: 2022-04-29
Verification Results
Verified Credits: 64,211 tCO2e
SOC Credit: 682 tCO2e
Performance Ratio: 80.9%

PDD Expected vs Actual Verification

Factor PDD Expected Actual Verified Variance
Projected Reductions 79,412 tCO2e 79,412 tCO2e → 0.0%
Buffer/Uncertainty Deduction 15,882 tCO2e 15,882 tCO2e ↓ -0.0%
SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon) N/A 682 tCO2e → 0.0%
Total Expected Credits 63,530 tCO2e 64,211 tCO2e ↑ +1.1%

Credit Flow Diagram

Vintage Analysis

Projected reductions: 79,412 tCO2e is the estimated annual reduction for vintage 2019. This report uses projected reductions as the starting point for credit calculation: projected reductions minus deductions equals verified credits.

Buffer/uncertainty alignment: The verification report applies a combined buffer/uncertainty deduction of 15,882 tCO2e (20.0%), which is -0 tCO2e relative to the PDD expectation of 15,882 tCO2e (20.0%). Leakage deductions are 0 tCO2e, and the resulting verified credits are 64,211 tCO2e.

SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon): An additional 682 tCO2e from Soil Organic Carbon contributes to the verified total. Tree biomass net reductions (projected − leakage − buffer/uncertainty) account for 63,530 tCO2e, with the remaining 682 tCO2e attributed to SOC.

Vintage Year 2020

Monitoring Period
Vintage Year: 2020
Start Date: 2017-03-21
End Date: 2022-04-29
Verification Results
Verified Credits: 64,211 tCO2e
SOC Credit: 682 tCO2e
Performance Ratio: 80.9%

PDD Expected vs Actual Verification

Factor PDD Expected Actual Verified Variance
Projected Reductions 79,412 tCO2e 79,412 tCO2e → 0.0%
Buffer/Uncertainty Deduction 15,882 tCO2e 15,882 tCO2e ↓ -0.0%
SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon) N/A 682 tCO2e → 0.0%
Total Expected Credits 63,530 tCO2e 64,211 tCO2e ↑ +1.1%

Credit Flow Diagram

Vintage Analysis

Projected reductions: 79,412 tCO2e is the estimated annual reduction for vintage 2020. This report uses projected reductions as the starting point for credit calculation: projected reductions minus deductions equals verified credits.

Buffer/uncertainty alignment: The verification report applies a combined buffer/uncertainty deduction of 15,882 tCO2e (20.0%), which is -0 tCO2e relative to the PDD expectation of 15,882 tCO2e (20.0%). Leakage deductions are 0 tCO2e, and the resulting verified credits are 64,211 tCO2e.

SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon): An additional 682 tCO2e from Soil Organic Carbon contributes to the verified total. Tree biomass net reductions (projected − leakage − buffer/uncertainty) account for 63,530 tCO2e, with the remaining 682 tCO2e attributed to SOC.

Vintage Year 2021

Monitoring Period
Vintage Year: 2021
Start Date: 2017-03-21
End Date: 2022-04-29
Verification Results
Verified Credits: 64,211 tCO2e
SOC Credit: 682 tCO2e
Performance Ratio: 80.9%

PDD Expected vs Actual Verification

Factor PDD Expected Actual Verified Variance
Projected Reductions 79,412 tCO2e 79,412 tCO2e → 0.0%
Buffer/Uncertainty Deduction 15,882 tCO2e 15,882 tCO2e ↓ -0.0%
SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon) N/A 682 tCO2e → 0.0%
Total Expected Credits 63,530 tCO2e 64,211 tCO2e ↑ +1.1%

Credit Flow Diagram

Vintage Analysis

Projected reductions: 79,412 tCO2e is the estimated annual reduction for vintage 2021. This report uses projected reductions as the starting point for credit calculation: projected reductions minus deductions equals verified credits.

Buffer/uncertainty alignment: The verification report applies a combined buffer/uncertainty deduction of 15,882 tCO2e (20.0%), which is -0 tCO2e relative to the PDD expectation of 15,882 tCO2e (20.0%). Leakage deductions are 0 tCO2e, and the resulting verified credits are 64,211 tCO2e.

SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon): An additional 682 tCO2e from Soil Organic Carbon contributes to the verified total. Tree biomass net reductions (projected − leakage − buffer/uncertainty) account for 63,530 tCO2e, with the remaining 682 tCO2e attributed to SOC.

Vintage Year 2022

Monitoring Period
Vintage Year: 2022
Start Date: 2017-03-21
End Date: 2022-04-29
Verification Results
Verified Credits: 40,805 tCO2e
SOC Credit: 222 tCO2e
Performance Ratio: 80.4%

PDD Expected vs Actual Verification

Factor PDD Expected Actual Verified Variance
Projected Reductions 50,728 tCO2e 50,728 tCO2e → 0.0%
Buffer/Uncertainty Deduction 10,146 tCO2e 10,146 tCO2e ↑ +0.0%
SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon) N/A 222 tCO2e → 0.0%
Total Expected Credits 40,582 tCO2e 40,805 tCO2e ↑ +0.5%

Credit Flow Diagram

Vintage Analysis

Projected reductions: 50,728 tCO2e is the estimated annual reduction for vintage 2022. This report uses projected reductions as the starting point for credit calculation: projected reductions minus deductions equals verified credits.

Buffer/uncertainty alignment: The verification report applies a combined buffer/uncertainty deduction of 10,146 tCO2e (20.0%), which is +0 tCO2e relative to the PDD expectation of 10,146 tCO2e (20.0%). Leakage deductions are 0 tCO2e, and the resulting verified credits are 40,805 tCO2e.

SOC Credit (Soil Organic Carbon): An additional 222 tCO2e from Soil Organic Carbon contributes to the verified total. Tree biomass net reductions (projected − leakage − buffer/uncertainty) account for 40,582 tCO2e, with the remaining 222 tCO2e attributed to SOC.